Cost estimation is a crucial input to the management of commitments to self and others that underlies achievement and quality of life.
Unfortunately, I do a very poor job of estimating how long projects will take. In the past three weeks, I have spent 75 hours on a project that I estimated would take 10. "5 minute" emails take me more like 20.
My estimates are not just imprecise, they are systematically biased. Downward. I almost always underestimate the time required.
What is truly astonishing is the persistence of the bias. I've been planning based on best-case scenarios for, um, 37 years, and yet in this moment, this blog post is taking longer to finish than I had expected. Just like the last three did.
At one point in my current project, I made a list of several sub-tasks, with estimated times for each. The first sub-task ended up taking 6 times longer than I had estimated. So I updated my estimates for the other sub-tasks...by a factor of two. How can I so consciously distort my own estimation?!
I think I am just loathe to admit that there is not time enough to do everything that I want to do. As I think about it, if I were to even add up my oh-so-rosy estimates of the time required to fulfill all my current commitments to myself and others for the coming week alone, I fear that I would have a rude awakening.
Admitting to unbiased time estimates would force me to face painful trade-offs head-on. I would have to re-evaluate my pie-in-the-sky project list and renegotiate commitments with myself and others. People might be disappointed. I might be disappointed.
But failing to face the trade-offs upfront doesn't just kick the can down the road, it basically kicks it out into a busy intersection where life becomes a cycle of deadline-crises and "passable" output. Even between crises, over-commitment saps mental energy and emotional resources, undermining enjoyment and engagement.
This is an amazing planet. There is no end of fantastic pursuits and projects. Not only do I currently have more wonderful projects and hobbies and commitments than I can manage, but I can think of dozens more that I would love to take up! But the satisfaction of realized vision, of excellence, and the exhilaration of effective engagement are worth learning to focus on a limited, feasible set of projects.
Have a fantastic week! Enjoy the planet! Just not everything at once.
3 comments:
You should read a book entitled "Refuse To Choose".
Cool. I'll check it out!
you speak directly to me and I appreciate every word that articulates both my thoughts and my difficulties with number of projects and time estimates. One good side effect however....i'll live to 116 ! as I'm unwilling to give in or give up !
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